We're having a playoff math lesson for our Lightning preview and open thread

It's that time of year that when the mathematician in all of us comes to the forefront. It started in the comments yesterday, with L Dude's formula:

Well, the Habs' mission is clear. Just like the road trip, continue to play .750 hockey. With 15 games remaining, that's 22.5 points (let's call it 22). 92 points is more than enough I think.
10 of the remaining 15 games are against teams below the Habs in the standings. Win them. There's 20 points. Take 2 of the 5 remaining to OT. So a mere 10-3-2 record will assure us of a playoff spot.

And then LeDouze linked to the geekiest, greatest page of statistics I've ever seen on the internet. I have no idea what any of those numbers or graphs mean, but it seems to give the Habs a 58.5% chance of making the playoffs. I could live with those odds.

One of the most watched playoff trackers is Mirtle's The Playoff Push. Currently, he is predicting that a mere 87 points will be enough to make it to the Playoffs in the East. That leaves the Habs with only needing a 8-6-1 record in our last 15 games to make it. That seems almost easy.

With a need for us to always be abreast of the latest information about our playoff chances, you'll see we updated the sidebar with some of these links. You'll want to click on them every day, study the numbers and get your inner geek on. They say sports are all about the numbers, and Miss Lloyd up there will get pretty annoyed if we don't take our math seriously. So at the risk of irritating Miss Lloyd and succumbing to her discipline, my reaction to all these numbers is the following:

It's a load of crap.

Want the Habs to make the playoffs? The equation is simple. Just win some fucking games. Beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Avoid giving up cheap points to the teams around us in the clusterfuck. Don't go on any real losing streaks. Play well. Play hard. Dig into the corners, stop backing down on D, ride a hot goalie, play for 60 minutes and you'll get in. As the old cliche goes, you gotta take 'em one game at a time, and the good Lord willing, things will work out. Let's start with tonight vs. the Bolts, previewed in bullet point form so I can get to my Miss Lloyd discipline already:

• 7:30 PM start at the Bell, though that might be a bit delayed with some Olympians in attendance;
• This is the fourth and thankfully final meeting with the Bolts this year, with the Bolts up 2-1;
• Habs coming off their 6 out of 8 points road trip, and the Bolts coming off breaking their 5-game losing streak with a win over the Thrash;
  
• Raw Charge is your source for all things Bolts;
• The Giant Mexican CHicken is carrying the offence now, with Gio scoring in each of the last 3 games. And Peks has goals in his last 2;
• Puck Daddy calls St Louis-Stamkos-Downie the best line in the NHL right now, and the stats back him up. Stamkos has a 16-game point streak, with 15G and 14A, Downie has a 10-game point streak, and Marty has 7 points in his last 3 games. Stamkos is behind only Sid and Ovie in goals. OK, then;
• Our Tits need to get going. Big is pointless since he's back, and Little has just one point in his last 6 games. Though I thought at times he was the best player on the ice Sunday;
• Bolts may have goaltending issues, with both Smith and Niittymaki not having great records over the last little while, though apparently Niittymaki was better in that Thrasher game;
• Twitter has The Urologist and Squid finally on the ice today, but that's a long way off from playing;
• Post-game, enjoy the full Danielle Lloyd teacher gallery (sort of NSFW, for hand boob).

Let's see your playoff equation in the comments

Ten Things I Hate About ... the Tampa Bay Lightning - Game Preview and Open Thread

When your favourite team loses the night before, you carry a certain chip on your shoulder the next day. When they lose to fucking Florida, and only score one goal, and have another game the next night on what has become an annual thorn in the franchise's side Florida trip, you tend to get a bit pissy. And take it out on the next opponent. So in lieu of a preview, you get ...

10 Things I Hate About the Tampa Bay Lightning

10. We've covered this before, but ... "Lightning! Avalanche! It's USSF Division 2 soccer, live on ESPN 6!!" It's a fucking stupid name. It's a fucking bush-league name.

9. Of course, we wouldn't expect any less of a city that can't even get its own name right. This is a pet peeve of New Republic editor and Slate/New York Times/Atlantic Monthly/ESPN contributor Gregg Easterbrook, who points out that the city the Lightning play in is actually called "Tampa", and sits at the mouth of a body of water called "Tampa Bay".

8. Lecavalier rumours. So. Many. Rumours. I read one more "The Bolts can't afford him, he's coming home to save the Canadiens" item, I'm killing Brian Lawton myself.

7. Hey, speaking of inept or useless Tampa GM's ... it's Phil Esposito! Big Phil's shameless huckstering and whoring out of the game to make a buck or two with the expansion Lightning was an embarrassment. Of course, most of that was necessary because Esposito's hand-picked financial backer, (Japanese company Kokusai Green) was essentially bankrupt and rumour has it a front for the Yakuza. The perilous state of the Lightning's finances lead to brainstorms like ...

6. Signing Manon Rheaume. Look, like any other red-blooded male, I loved the idea of a hot, hockey-playing babe. I kinda sorta didn't like that she got to play in the NHL (even if it was just an exhibition). Bottom line: Manon Rheaume wasn't good enough to make the roster of a National Hockey League team, even one as terrible as the Lightning. Esposito admitted it was all a publicity stunt after the fact. Well, duh. Still doesn't make it right. Panger gets no shot, but Rheaume does?

5. Wait, is that noted cheapshot artist and general fucktard Steve Downie on the roster? Why yes, yes it is. The Lightning employ a guy the FLYERS thought was a loose cannon. Sweet merciful crap.

4. This. This drives me fucking crazy, in a "screw these Southern-based, undeserving, Bettman-inspired crap franchises winning Cups" kinda way.

3. In a league full of bad jersey choices, the Lightning were the first to take it to a new level of stupid: The nickname jersey. Can you imagine the Leafs trotting out in a "Buds" shirt? Or Detroit or Chicago sporting only "Wings" or "Hawks"? Maybe the Flyers need to wear "Bullies" in script instead of the Flying P? Sounds ridiculous in theory. It's just as stupid in real life.

2. Frankly, the Lightning (and Lecavalier and St. Louis in particular) have a history of biting the Habs in the ass, just like their cousins in Miami. I've counted too many losses to these two johnny-come-lately Florida teams to count, and it pisses me off. Almost as much as ...

1. The fact that Tampa and Florida either a) whine and plead their way to get a visit from the Canadiens around Christmas to help their bottom line or b) are so financially unstable and unsuitable as pro hockey cities that the NHL desperately tries to get asses in the seats over Christmas by forcing marquee teams like the Habs into an annual Florida trip. Fuck that. If you are in such dire financial straits each year that your financial well-being depends on the Habs filling your coffers, MOVE THE FUCK TO A REAL HOCKEY TOWN or FOLD THE FUCKING TEAM. I haven't liked this rudderless, financial suckhole of a team since the day it was founded, and I wouldn't shed one tear to see it go down in flames. Especially if they win tonight.

Oh, right. Tonight. 7:00 pm, St. Pete's Times Forum, live on RDS and TSN. Some guys are hurt, some are healthy. Vinny and Stamkos are hot for Tampa, GMC and Cammalleri for Montreal. Jaro looking good despite last night's loss, but apparently Price gets the start. Mike Smith is hurting for Tampa so look for AnnTaylorNinnyChicomaki in goal.

Got a reason to hate the Lightning, the Panthers, the state of Florida in general? Let's hear it in the comments.

Vinny vide vice - Lightning game preview and open thread

Let's step back to both last spring and last summer when The Cavalier was the subject of all sorts of rumours (since confirmed) that Bob was trying to get him to Montreal. Any idea what this team would have looked like this year? Vinny leading the first line with Tanguay on his wing? It's a Bertrand Raymond wet dream! Well, you and BR can imagine what that would have been like tonight as those two skate together on Bell Centre ice.

Waiting in line details - 7 PM at the Phone Booth, on CBC for those of you who don't live in CBC Leafs country. So like, everyone but Quebec? These teams are pretty equal - sitting on the Eastern conference bubble, hanging around .500. Clash of the titans.

Pay your cover charge to - Raw Charge is "the static cling that brings Tampa Bay Lightning fans together." I like to think of FHF as the virtual strip club that brings Habs fans together.

Hot sexy Habs to watch - Carey? Price? Maybe? My god did he show something in our last game. Will it continue? Has he turned some sort of corner? Ha, I keed. It's one fucking game. Let's see. Pleks and Squid continue to tie the team lead with 14 points. Métro is almost a point per game over his last 8 games, and 2 goals over his last 3 games. He's our secondary scoring now.

Skanky Habs to watch - can we call the Urologist a failure yet? No points in 6 games. Where was he on the 5 on 3 the other night? His "defense" is a joke. The Subbanator could do the job better, and with better post-game quotes.

Hot sexy Bolts to watch - Stamkos leads the Bolts with 17 points. St. Louis right behind at 16. After a slow start, Tangy has 6 points over his last 6 games. Some decent goaltending too, with Niittymaki 1-0-2, 1.60, .950 in his last 4.

Skanky Bolts to watch - D Andrej Meszaros pointless in 6.

On the main stage - Usual suspects on the shelf for the Habs. Rhino was seen yesterday "skating vigorously." Bolts will be deprived of prized rookie Victor Hedman, victim of a nasty (though I think legal) Chris Neil hit Thursday. No real lineup notes as of this writing, but I'm guessing TFS will be between the stripper poles.

In the VIP Room - I don't know if you've caught the little Mad Max - McSplooge cat fight going on. Basically McSplooge thinks Mad Max is a pussy. Max denies it. Anyway, what's really lost here is that Mad Max and his compatriote Gui:( are playing like shit. They've been given chance after chance, especially as Pleks' wingers, temps de glace up the wazoo, and are doing nothing except sucking. Gui has 3 points for fuck's sake, Max 5. Wake the fuck up, 'stie.

Post-game adult entertainment establishment - Walking home from work the other day I noticed a very large sign on Ste Catherine for Club Temptation. Is it new? Did they just get a big sign? Did one of the other places rename itself? I need to investigate further.

Join me in the comments wishing GoldenGirl11 a hearty Mazel Tov for her son's bar mitzvah today. I have it on good authority Mr. Dr. GG11 forced her to leave her iPhone at home from synagogue this morning, but I bet she sneaks out of the party tonight to watch the game and comment.